Projection of world economy in 1990's

In the introduction of the article the author characterizes the fundamental tendencies in the development of world economy and its main components since 1960's. As far as the 1990's are concerned, the signal of change in the development of world economy was the recession, which in 1991, affected the Anglo-Saxon countries, and a year later, spread to other industrially-advanced nations. In the first part an analysis is made about the recession in the group of transitional economies where the decline of the Gross Domestic Product already began in 1990, which, however, didn't lead to the recession of the world economy. The author comes to the conclusion that in the transitional economies during 1990's, occurs wider space for the activities of cyclical influences and for the syndrom with cyclical swings of world economy. Naturally, from the cyclical swings even Slovakia was not exempt (and even in the future will not be exempt), which should be taken into account in the formulation of economic strategy of the Slovak Republic. The development of economy in the Eastern European countries (especially members of CEFTA) from 1994 can be evaluated as a beginning of revival, i.e., the overcoming of structural or transformational decline. In the article are mentioned facts about the development of GDP, unemployment, inflation and external economic relations. Projected appraisal in transitional economies (individually in countries of CEFTA) are on the whole considered positive. What's unclear until now is the projected development in the Organization of Independent States. The second part is devoted to the cyclical development in the industrially-advanced countries (OECD). The unequal growth of recession in these countries in 1990's didn't lead to the absolute decline of GDP. The Gross Domestic Product within this group during 1991-1993, only stagnated. The author also takes into account other indicators-prices, unemployment, and the main components of aggregate demand. In 1994, began in countries of OECD a renewal, which continued (certainly unequally) also in 1995. In the conclusion of the article, the author points to some of the problems of procyclical (stabilization) policy in the industrially-advanced countries.