Modelling the effects of an abolition of the EU sugar quota on internal prices, production and imports

被引：13

作者：

Nolte, Stephan ^{[1
]}

Buysse, Jeroen ^{[1
]}

Van Huylenbroeck, Guido ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Ghent, Dept Agr Econ, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

来源：

EUROPEAN REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS | 2012年 / 39卷 / 01期

关键词：

CAP; structural change; sugar; TRQ; spatial modelling; trade preferences; PMP; EQUILIBRIUM-ANALYSIS; TRADE; MARKETS;

D O I：

10.1093/erae/jbr043

中图分类号：

F3 [农业经济];

学科分类号：

0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;

摘要：

We apply a spatial price equilibrium model of the world sugar market to simulate an abolition of the European Union (EU) quota system in 2015/16. To overcome the normative nature of the approach, we calibrate the model by attaching a non-linear cost term to each trade flow. This is in some regards similar to positive mathematical programming. We suggest an economic interpretation and an econometric specification of the cost term. EU sugar production is simulated to increase from 13.3 to 15.5 million tons in case of quota abolition by 2019/20. Ten member states increase production, nine reduce it. Preferential imports are significantly reduced. Simulated effects are found to be more pronounced the higher the world market price.

引用

页码：75 / 94

页数：20

共 34 条

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