A prospective study of the natural history of incidental meningioma-Hold your horses!

Background. The number of incidental meningiomas has increased because of the increased availability of neuroimaging. Lack of prospective data on the natural history makes the optimal management unclear. We conducted a 5-year prospective study of incidental meningiomas to identify risk factors for tumor growth. Methods. Sixty-four of 70 consecutive patients with incidental meningioma were included. Clinical and radiological status was obtained at 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. GammaPlan and mixed linear regression modeling were utilized for volumetric analysis with primary endpoint tumor growth. Results. None of the patients developed tumor-related symptoms during the study period, although 48 (75%) tumors increased (>15%), 13 (20.3%) remained unchanged, and 3 (4.7%) decreased (>15%) in volume. Mean time to growth was 2.2 years (range, 0.5-5.0 years). The growth pattern was quasi-exponential in 26%, linear in 17%, sigmoidal in 35%, parabolic in 17%, and continuous reduction in 5%. There was significant correlation among growth rate, larger baseline tumor volume (P<.001), and age in years (<55 y: 0.10 cm(3)/y, 55-75 y: 0.24 cm(3)/y, and >75 y: 0.85 cm(3)/y). Conclusion. The majority of meningiomas will eventually grow. However, more than 60% display a self-limiting growth pattern. Our study provides level-2 evidence that asymptomatic tumors can be safely managed utilizing serial imaging until persistent radiological and/or symptomatic growth.