Risk assessment and predictive microbiology

The need and desirability of being able to perform quantitative microbial risk assessments for food processing and preparation operations has been discussed extensively for the past several years. However, there has been little application of this approach in large part due to the need to account for the changes in bacterial populations as a result of food environments and processing. The use of predictive food microbiology models has the potential for overcoming these limitations. Through integration of predictive modeling with risk assessment, it is possible to estimate how changes in unit operations are likely to effect the overall safety of a food. Hypothetical examples of how these techniques could be applied to both single-step and multiple-step food-processing and preparation operations are provided.