Forecast of anaemia prevalence in the regions of Russia using the agent-based model

In the article development of the agent-based model of anaemia prevalence in Russia is discussed. The structure of the model is presented, which includes agents--residents, food producers and sales agents. For each actor in the model, algorithms have been developed that determine their interactions. For food producers, their purchases, sales, production process and dynamics of investments in equipment are simulated. Simulation of sales agents includes the assortment formation and product prices, taking into account transport and trade margins. Households form their diet based on their income, composition, traditions and habits. The expected dynamics of anaemia is modeled depending on the quality of the received food and the current stage of the disease. The article also discusses program realization and information support of the model; the user interface is presented. Four scenarios of the dynamics of the socio-economic environment of the model are formalized, taking into account epidemiological and external economic risks. A series of calculations was carried out to predict the dynamics of anaemia prevalence under conditions of the developed scenarios. A program of subsidizing low-income families was proposed and its influence on availability of a balanced diet and anaemia prevalence among Russian residents was studied. The calculations show that in the absence of special support measures, a balanced diet becomes available to a smaller number of residents (65% compared to 78% in 2019) in the conditions of the most likely "trade war" scenario. At the same time, the total amount of subsidies required to provide low-income families with quality food varies from 300 billion to 1 trillion rubles per year, depending on the amount of benefits allocated.