Qualitative analysis of future flood risk in the Taihu Basin, China

被引:27
作者
Harvey, G. L. [1 ]
Thorne, C. R. [1 ]
Cheng, X. [2 ]
Evans, E. P. [1 ]
Han, S.
Simm, J. D. [3 ]
Wang, Y. [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
[2] China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] HR Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxon, England
来源
JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT | 2009年 / 2卷 / 02期
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
Flood risk drivers; flood risk responses; future flooding; risk assessment; stakeholder participation; sustainability; Taihu Basin; China; LAND SUBSIDENCE; GROUNDWATER EXPLOITATION; CATCHMENT FLOOD; YANGTZE DELTA; LAKE TAIHU; MANAGEMENT; CHALLENGES; PROTECTION; SCOTLAND; PLANS;
D O I
10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01024.x
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
This paper presents the results of a qualitative analysis of future flood risk in the Taihu Basin, China, performed using an adaptation of the UK Foresight Future Flooding approach. Drivers of increased flood risk were identified and ranked according to their importance in contributing to future flooding by experts and stakeholders working within an inclusive, participatory framework. Management responses to increasing flood risk were also identified and assessed in terms, first, of their potential to reduce flood risks and, second, their sustainability. This analysis provides the foundation for quantitative flood risk modelling to be performed in the next phase of the project. It has also added value to flood risk management in the Taihu Basin by bringing stakeholders together to develop a shared understanding of the flooding system and the relative importance of multiple flood risk drivers and responses. Together, the qualitative and quantitative analyses will provide a comprehensive vision of possible future flood risk to inform policy development and decision making.
引用
收藏
页码:85 / 100
页数:16
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