Scenario-based forecast for the electricity demand in Qatar and the role of energy efficiency improvements

被引：27

作者：

Khalifa, Ahmed ^{[1
]}

Caporin, Massimiliano ^{[2
]}

Di Fonzo, Tommaso ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Qatar Univ, Coll Business & Econ, Doha 2713, Qatar

[2] Univ Padua, Dept Stat Sci, Via C Eattisti 241, I-35121 Padua, Italy

来源：

ENERGY POLICY | 2019年 / 127卷

关键词：

Electricity consumption; Electricity efficiency; Scenario-based forecast; RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; CONSUMPTION; BOUNDS; COINTEGRATION; CAUSALITY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.047

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We model the electricity consumption in the market segment that compose the Qatari electricity market. We link electricity consumption to GDP growth and Population Growth. Building on the estimated model, we develop long-range forecasts of electricity consumption from 2017 to 2030 over different scenarios for the economic drivers. In addition, we proxy for electricity efficiency improvements by reducing the long-run elasticity of electricity consumption to GDP and Population. We show that electricity efficiency has a crucial role in controlling the future development of electricity consumption. Energy policies should consider this aspect and support both electricity efficiency improvement programs, as well as a price reform.

引用

页码：155 / 164

页数：10

共 28 条

[1] Aggregate demand for electricity in South Africa: An analysis using the bounds testing approach to cointegration [J].