Combined PET-CT and MRI for response evaluation in patients with squamous cell anal carcinoma treated with curative-intent chemoradiotherapy

Objectives To assess the effectiveness of fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron-emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for response assessment post curative-intent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC). Methods Consecutive ASCC patients treated with curative-intent CRT at a single centre between January 2018 and April 2020 were retrospectively identified. Clinical meta-data including progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) outcomes were collated. Three radiologists evaluated PET-CT and MRI using qualitative response assessment criteria and agreed in consensus. Two-proportion z test was used to compare diagnostic performance metrics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy). Kaplan-Meier analysis (Mantel-Cox log-rank) was performed. Results MRI (accuracy 76%, PPV 44.8%, NPV 95.7%) and PET-CT (accuracy 69.3%, PPV 36.7%, NPV 91.1%) performance metrics were similar; when combined, there were statistically significant improvements (accuracy 94.7%, PPV 78.9%, NPV 100%). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated significant differences in PFS between responders and non-responders at PET-CT (p = 0.007), MRI (p = 0.005), and consensus evaluation (p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis of PFS demonstrated a lower hazard ratio (HR) and narrower 95% confidence intervals for consensus findings (HR = 0.093, p < 0.001). Seventy-five patients, of which 52 (69.3%) were females, with median follow-up of 17.8 months (range 5-32.6) were included. Fifteen of the 75 (20%) had persistent anorectal and/or nodal disease after CRT. Three patients died, median time to death 6.2 months (range 5-18.3). Conclusion Combined PET-CT and MRI response assessment post-CRT better predicts subsequent outcome than either modality alone. This could have valuable clinical benefits by guiding personalised risk-adapted patient follow-up.