Three strain;
Global stability analysis;
Basic reproduction ratios;
Influenza;
TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS;
MATHEMATICAL-MODEL;
MECHANISMS;
D O I:
10.1016/j.chaos.2017.11.003
中图分类号:
O1 [数学];
学科分类号:
0701 ;
070101 ;
摘要:
In this paper we consider three strains of influenza (I-1, I-2, and I-3) where we have vaccine for strain1 (V-1) only, and population has enough awareness of strain 2. There is neither vaccine nor awareness for strain 3. Our main aim is to mathematically analyze the effect of the vaccine for strain 1 and awareness of strain 2 on the dynamics of strain 3. It is also in our aim to study the coexistence of these three strains. Six equilibrium points were obtained and their global stability using Lyapunov functions was shown to depend on the magnitude of a threshold quantity, called basic reproduction ratio. It was shown that the coexistence of strain 1 and strain 2 is not possible and the coexistence of the three strains was shown numerically. It can be observed from the numerical simulations that, although vaccine curtail the spread of strain 1, awareness curtail the spread of strain 2, but they both have negative effect on strain 3. This tells the relevant authorities whenever there is influenza epidemic to investigate thoroughly the possibilities of the existence of multiple strains, so as to provide vaccines and enough awareness on all the strains present. (c) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机构:
Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, EnglandUniv London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
Cauchemez, Simon
;
论文数: 引用数:
h-index:
机构:
Valleron, Alain-Jacques
;
Boelle, Pierre-Yves
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Paris 06, UMR S707, F-75012 Paris, France
INSERM, UMR S 707, F-75012 Paris, France
Hop St Antoine, AP HP, F-75012 Paris, FranceUniv London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
Boelle, Pierre-Yves
;
Flahault, Antoine
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Paris 06, UMR S707, F-75012 Paris, France
INSERM, UMR S 707, F-75012 Paris, France
French Sch Publ Hlth EHESP, F-75004 Paris, FranceUniv London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
Flahault, Antoine
;
Ferguson, Neil M.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, EnglandUniv London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
机构:
Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Univ Bristol, Dept Engn Math, Bristol BS8 1TR, Avon, EnglandBrigham & Womens Hosp, Div Global Hlth Equ, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Colijn, Caroline
;
Murray, Megan
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Brigham & Womens Hosp, Div Global Hlth Equ, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Massachusetts Gen Hosp, Div Infect Dis, Boston, MA 02114 USABrigham & Womens Hosp, Div Global Hlth Equ, Boston, MA 02115 USA
机构:
Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, EnglandUniv London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
Cauchemez, Simon
;
论文数: 引用数:
h-index:
机构:
Valleron, Alain-Jacques
;
Boelle, Pierre-Yves
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Paris 06, UMR S707, F-75012 Paris, France
INSERM, UMR S 707, F-75012 Paris, France
Hop St Antoine, AP HP, F-75012 Paris, FranceUniv London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
Boelle, Pierre-Yves
;
Flahault, Antoine
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Paris 06, UMR S707, F-75012 Paris, France
INSERM, UMR S 707, F-75012 Paris, France
French Sch Publ Hlth EHESP, F-75004 Paris, FranceUniv London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
Flahault, Antoine
;
Ferguson, Neil M.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, EnglandUniv London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, MRC Ctr Outbreak Anal & Modelling, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
机构:
Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Univ Bristol, Dept Engn Math, Bristol BS8 1TR, Avon, EnglandBrigham & Womens Hosp, Div Global Hlth Equ, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Colijn, Caroline
;
Murray, Megan
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Brigham & Womens Hosp, Div Global Hlth Equ, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA
Massachusetts Gen Hosp, Div Infect Dis, Boston, MA 02114 USABrigham & Womens Hosp, Div Global Hlth Equ, Boston, MA 02115 USA