Using Bayesian Networks for a Cyberattacks Propagation Analysis in Systems-of-Systems

System of Systems (SoS) represent a set of independent Constituent Systems (CS) that collaborate in order to provide functionalities that they are unable to achieve independently. We consider SoS as a set of connected services that needs to be adequately protected. The integration of these independent, evolutionary and distributed systems, intensifies SoS complexity and emphasizes the behavior uncertainty, which makes an SoS security analysis a critical challenge. One of the major priorities when designing SoS, is to analyze the unknown dependencies among CS services and vulnerabilities leading to potential cyberattacks. The aim of this work is to investigate how Software Engineering approaches could be leveraged to analyze the cyberattack propagation problem within an SoS. Such analysis is essential for an efficient SoS risk assessment performed early at the SoS design phase and required to protect the SoS from possibly high impact attacks affecting its safety and security. In order to achieve our objective, we present a model-driven analysis approach, based on Bayesian Networks, a sensitivity analysis and Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) with aim to discover potential cyberattacks propagation and estimate the probability of a security failure and its impact on SoS services. We illustrate this approach in an autonomous quarry example.