The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis

We examine whether the cross-country incidence and severity of the 2008-09 global recession is systematically related to precrisis macroeconomic and financial factors. We find that the precrisis level of development, increases in the ratio of private credit to GDP, current account deficits, and openness to trade are helpful in understanding the intensity of the crisis. International risk sharing did little to shield domestic demand from the country-specific component of output declines, while those countries with large pre-crisis current account deficits saw domestic demand fall by much more than domestic output during the crisis. [JEL F31, F32] IMF Economic Review advance online publication, 23 November 2010; doi:10.1057/imfer.2010.12