[1] Univ Glasgow, MRC Univ Glasgow Ctr Virus Res, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
[2] Univ Glasgow, Sch Math & Stat, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
[3] NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
[4] Univ Cambridge, MRC Biostat Unit, Cambridge, England
[5] Publ Hlth Scotland, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
[6] Univ St Andrews, Sch Med, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland
[7] NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
[8] Univ Oxford, Oxford, England
[9] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London, England