New methodology to define probability of buildings energy consumption

The present paper shows a new methodology to define the expected energy consumption of a constructed building as a function of indoor air temperatures. This new methodology is based on Monte Carlo method, ISO 13790 Standard and real sampled data. Results showed two different density function distribution to summer and winter energy consumption and, in consequence, carbon dioxide emission. Furthermore, it was obtained that Weibull continuous probability distribution is the more approached model. Once the cumulative distribution of energy consumption was compared with previous research works centered in real sampled data, a clear accordance between results was obtained. Finally, these results are of special interest for architects and building HVAC designers due to it shows the expected density distribution of each of the variables in real buildings and, in consequence, it could be an interesting tool at the building design stage and maintenance of existing buildings.