Classification of cryptocurrency coins and tokens by the dynamics of their market capitalizations

被引:22
|
作者
Wu, Ke [1 ]
Wheatley, Spencer [1 ]
Sornetteu, Didier [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Chair Entrepreneurial Risks, Scheuchzerstr 7, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
[2] Univ Geneva, Swiss Finance Inst, Geneva, Switzerland
来源
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE | 2018年 / 5卷 / 09期
基金
欧盟地平线“2020”;
关键词
cryptocurrency; proportional growth; power law; market capitalization; ZIPFS LAW; BITCOIN; PRICE;
D O I
10.1098/rsos.180381
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
We empirically verify that the market capitalizations of coins and tokens in the cryptocurrency universe follow power-law distributions with significantly different values for the tail exponent falling between 0.5 and 0.7 for coins, and between 1.0 and 1.3 for tokens. We provide a rationale for this, based on a simple proportional growth with birth and death model previously employed to describe the size distribution of firms, cities, webpages, etc. We empirically validate the model and its main predictions, in terms of proportional growth (Gibrat's Law) of the coins and tokens. Estimating the main parameters of the model, the theoretical predictions for the power-law exponents of coin and token distributions are in remarkable agreement with the empirical estimations, given the simplicity of the model. Our results clearly characterize coins as being 'entrenched incumbents' and tokens as an 'explosive immature ecosystem', largely due to massive and exuberant Initial Coin Offering activity in the token space. The theory predicts that the exponent for tokens should converge to 1 in the future, reflecting a more reasonable rate of new entrants associated with genuine technological innovations.
引用
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页数:10
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