Empirical validation of a real options theory based method for optimizing evacuation decisions within chemical plants

被引：5

作者：

Reniers, G. L. L. ^{[1
,2
]}

Audenaert, A. ^{[1
,3
]}

Pauwels, N. ^{[1
]}

Soudan, K. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Antwerp, ARGoSS, B-2000 Antwerp, Belgium

[2] European Univ, Coll Brussels, CEDON, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium

[3] Artesis Hogesch Antwerpen, B-2000 Antwerp, Belgium

来源：

JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS | 2011年 / 186卷 / 01期

关键词：

Empirical validation; Intervention decisions; Precautionary evacuation management; Fire evacuation management; FIRE ACCIDENTS; IN-PLACE; MANAGEMENT; EMERGENCY; SYSTEMS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.11.061

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

This article empirically assesses and validates a methodology to make evacuation decisions in case of major fire accidents in chemical clusters. In this paper, a number of empirical results are presented, processed and discussed with respect to the implications and management of evacuation decisions in chemical companies. It has been shown in this article that in realistic industrial settings, suboptimal interventions may result in case the prospect to obtain additional information at later stages of the decision process is ignored. Empirical results also show that implications of interventions, as well as the required time and workforce to complete particular shutdown activities, may be very different from one company to another. Therefore, to be optimal from an economic viewpoint, it is essential that precautionary evacuation decisions are tailor-made per company. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：779 / 787

页数：9