Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories

被引：16

作者：

AbdusSalam, Shehu S. ^{[1
]}

Agocs, Fruzsina J. ^{[2
,3
]}

Allanach, Benjamin C. ^{[4
]}

Athron, Peter ^{[5
,6
,7
]}

Balazs, Csaba ^{[7
]}

Bagnaschi, Emanuele ^{[8
]}

Bechtle, Philip ^{[9
]}

Buchmueller, Oliver ^{[10
]}

Beniwal, Ankit ^{[11
]}

Bhom, Jihyun ^{[12
]}

Bloor, Sanjay ^{[10
,13
]}

Bringmann, Torsten ^{[14
]}

Buckley, Andy ^{[15
]}

Butter, Anja ^{[16
]}

Camargo-Molina, Jose Eliel ^{[17
]}

Chrzaszcz, Marcin ^{[12
]}

Conrad, Jan ^{[18
]}

Cornell, Jonathan M. ^{[19
]}

Danninger, Matthias ^{[20
]}

de Blas, Jorge ^{[21
]}

De Roeck, Albert ^{[22
]}

Desch, Klaus ^{[9
]}

Dolan, Matthew ^{[23
]}

Dreiner, Herbert ^{[9
]}

Eberhardt, Otto ^{[24
]}

Ellis, John ^{[25
]}

Ben Farmer ^{[10
,26
]}

Fedele, Marco ^{[27
]}

Flaecher, Henning ^{[28
]}

Fowlie, Andrew ^{[1
,5
,6
]}

Gonzalo, Tomas E. ^{[5
,6
]}

Grace, Philip ^{[29
]}

Hamer, Matthias ^{[9
]}

Handley, Will ^{[2
,3
]}

Harz, Julia ^{[31
]}

Heinemeyer, Sven ^{[32
]}

Hoof, Sebastian ^{[33
]}

Hotinli, Selim ^{[10
]}

Jackson, Paul ^{[29
]}

Kahlhoefer, Felix ^{[34
]}

Kowalska, Kamila ^{[35
]}

Kraemer, Michael ^{[34
]}

Kvellestad, Anders ^{[14
]}

Martinez, Miriam Lucio ^{[36
]}

Mahmoudi, Farvah ^{[37
,38
]}

Martinez Santos, Diego ^{[39
]}

Martinez, Gregory D. ^{[40
]}

Mishima, Satoshi ^{[41
]}

Olive, Keith ^{[42
]}

Paul, Ayan ^{[43
,45
]}

机构：

[1] Shahid Beheshti Univ, Dept Phys, Tehran, Iran

[2] Univ Cambridge, Cavendish Lab, JJ Thomson Ave, Cambridge CB3 0HE, England

[3] Univ Cambridge, Kavli Inst Cosmol, Madingley Rd, Cambridge CB3 0HA, England

[4] Univ Cambridge, DAMTP, Cambridge CB3 0WA, England

[5] Nanjing Normal Univ, Dept Phys, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[6] Nanjing Normal Univ, Inst Theoret Phys, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[7] Monash Univ, Sch Phys & Astron, Melbourne, Vic 3800, Australia

[8] Paul Scherrer Inst, CH-5232 Villigen, Switzerland

[9] Univ Bonn, Phys Inst, Nussallee 12, D-53115 Bonn, Germany

[10] Imperial Coll London, Dept Phys, Blackett Lab, Prince Consort Rd, London SW7 2AZ, England

[11] Catholic Univ Louvain, Ctr Cosmol Particle Phys & Phenomenol CP3, B-1348 Louvain La Neuve, Belgium

[12] Polish Acad Sci, Inst Nucl Phys, Krakow, Poland

[13] Univ Queensland, Sch Math & Phys, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia

[14] Univ Oslo, Dept Phys, Box 1048, N-0316 Oslo, Norway

[15] Univ Glasgow, Sch Phys & Astron, Univ Pl, Glasgow G12 8QQ, Lanark, Scotland

[16] Heidelberg Univ, Inst Theoret Phys, Heidelberg, Germany

[17] Uppsala Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, Box 516, SE-75120 Uppsala, Sweden

[18] AlbaNova Univ Ctr, Oskar Klein Ctr Cosmoparticle Phys, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[19] Weber State Univ, Dept Phys, 1415 Edvalson St,Dept 2508, Ogden, UT 84408 USA

[20] Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Phys, 8888 Univ Dr, Burnaby, BC, Canada

[21] Univ Durham, Inst Particle Phys Phenomenol, Durham DH1 3LE, England

[22] CERN, Expt Phys Dept, CH-1211 Geneva 23, Switzerland

[23] Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Dark Matter Particle Phys, Sch Phys, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia

[24] IFIC UV CSIC, Inst Fis Corpuscular, Apt Correus 22085, E-46071 Valencia, Spain

[25] Kings Coll London, Dept Phys, Theoret Particle Phys & Cosmol Grp, London WC2R 2LS, England

[26] Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia

[27] Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Theoret Teilchenphys, D-76131 Karlsruhe, Germany

[28] Univ Bristol, HH Wills Phys Lab, Tyndall Ave, Bristol BS8 1TL, Avon, England

[29] Univ Adelaide, ARC Ctr Dark Matter Particle Phys, Dept Phys, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia

[30] Korea Inst Adv Study, Seoul 02455, South Korea

[31] Tech Univ Munich, Phys Dept T70, James Franck Str, D-85748 Garching, Germany

[32] Inst Fis Teor UAM CSIC, Madrid 28049, Spain

[33] Georg August Univ Gottingen, Inst Astrophys & Geophys, Friedrich Hund Pl 1, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany

[34] Rhein Westfal TH Aachen, Inst Theoret Particle Phys & Cosmol TTK, Sommerfeldstr 14, D-52056 Aachen, Germany

[35] Natl Ctr Nucl Res, Ul Pasteura 7, PL-02093 Warsaw, Poland

[36] Nikhef Natl Inst Subatom Phys, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[37] Univ Lyon, Univ Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS IN2P3, Inst Phys 2 Infinis Lyon,UMR 5822, F-69622 Villeurbanne, France

[38] CERN, Theoret Phys Dept, CH-1211 Geneva 23, Switzerland

[39] Univ Santiago de Compostela, Inst Galego Fis Altas Enerxias, Santiago De Compostela, Spain

[40] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Phys & Astron Dept, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

[41] KEK, Theory Ctr, IPNS, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050801, Japan

[42] Univ Minnesota, Sch Phys & Astron, William I Fine Theoret Phys Inst, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA

[43] Deutsch Elektronen Synchrotron DESY, Notkestr 85, D-22607 Hamburg, Germany

[44] Univ Hamburg, Inst Theoret Phys, Luruper Chaussee 149, D-22761 Hamburg, Germany

[45] Humboldt Univ, Inst Phys, D-12489 Berlin, Germany

[46] Univ Wurzburg, Emil Hilb Weg 22, D-97074 Wurzburg, Germany

[47] Univ Kansas, Dept Phys & Astron, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA

[48] Polish Acad Sci, Astrocent, Nicolaus Copernicus Astron Ctr, Bartycka 18, PL-00716 Warsaw, Poland

[49] Univ Warsaw, Fac Phys, Inst Theoret Phys, Ul Pasteura 5, PL-02093 Warsaw, Poland

[50] Ist Nazl Fis Nucl, Sez Torino, Via P Giuria 1, I-10125 Turin, Italy

来源：

REPORTS ON PROGRESS IN PHYSICS | 2022年 / 85卷 / 05期

基金：

英国科学技术设施理事会; 中国国家自然科学基金; 瑞典研究理事会; 澳大利亚研究理事会;

关键词：

particle physics; statistics; methodology; P-VALUES; CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS; BAYESIAN-INFERENCE; LIKELIHOOD RATIO; GAMBIT; EFFICIENT; OPTIMIZATION; SELECTION; SEARCH; ERRORS;

D O I：

10.1088/1361-6633/ac60ac

中图分类号：

O4 [物理学];

学科分类号：

0702 ;

摘要：

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

引用

页数：11

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