Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation

被引:75
作者
Friedlingstein, P. [1 ]
Solomon, S. [2 ]
Plattner, G-K. [3 ]
Knutti, R. [4 ]
Ciais, P. [5 ]
Raupach, M. R. [6 ]
机构
[1] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England
[2] Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[3] Univ Bern, Inst Phys, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
[4] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
[5] CEA CNRS UVSQ, Sci Climat & Environm CSIRO Marine & Sci Climat &, UMR 709, CE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
[6] CSIRO Marine & Atmospher Res, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia
关键词
CO2; EMISSIONS; MODEL; TEMPERATURE; STRATEGIES;
D O I
10.1038/NCLIMATE1302
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide1-4. Previous studies have estimated that humankind has already emitted about 50% of the total amount allowed if warming, relative to pre-industrial, is to stay below 2 degrees C (refs 1,2). Carbon dioxide emissions will thus need to decrease substantially in the future if this target is to be met. Here we show how links between near-term decisions, long-term behaviour and climate sensitivity uncertainties constrain options for emissions mitigation. Using a model of intermediate complexity5,6, we explore the implications of non-zero long-term global emissions, combined with various near-term mitigation rates or delays in action. For a median climate sensitivity, a long-term 90% emission reduction relative to the present-day level is incompatible with a 2 ffi C target within the coming millennium. Zero or negative emissions can be compatible with the target if medium to high emission-reduction rates begin within the next two decades. For a high climate sensitivity, however, even negative emissions would require a global mitigation rate at least as great as the highest rate considered feasible by economic models7,8 to be implemented within the coming decade. Only a low climate sensitivity would allow for a longer delay in mitigation action and a more conservative mitigation rate, and would still require at least 90% phase-out of emissions thereafter.
引用
收藏
页码:457 / 461
页数:5
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