Low sun exposure increases multiple sclerosis risk both directly and indirectly

Objective We aimed to study (1) to what extent the influence of low sun exposure on multiple sclerosis (MS) risk is mediated by low vitamin D levels; (2) whether low sun exposure or vitamin D deficiency act synergistically with HLA-DRB1*15:01 and absence of HLA-A*02:01. Methods We used two population-based case-control studies (7069 cases, 6632 matched controls). Subjects with different HLA alleles, sun exposure habits and vitamin D status were compared regarding MS risk, by calculating odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) employing logistic regression. Mediation analysis was used to identify the potential mediation effect of vitamin D on the relationship between low sun exposure and MS risk. Results Low sun exposure increased MS risk directly as well as indirectly, by affecting vitamin D status. The direct effect, expressed as OR, was 1.26 (95% CI 1.04-1.45) and the indirect effect, mediated by vitamin D deficiency, was 1.10 (95% CI 1.02-1.23). Of the total effect, nearly 30% was mediated by vitamin D deficiency. There was a significant interaction between low sun exposure and vitamin D deficiency (attributable proportion due to interaction 0.3, 95% CI 0.04-0.5) accounting for about 12% of the total effect. Further, both factors interacted with HLA-DRB1*15:01 to increase MS risk. Interpretation Our findings indicate that low sun exposure acts both directly on MS risk as well as indirectly, by leading to low vitamin D levels. The protective effect of sun exposure thus seems to involve both vitamin D and non-vitamin D pathways, which is of relevance for prevention, in particular for those with a genetic susceptibility to MS.