Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood forecast error

被引：35
作者：
Zhang YanPing [1 ]
Wang GuoLi [1 ]
Peng Yong [1 ]
Zhou HuiCheng [1 ]
机构：
[1] Dalian Univ Technol, Sch Hydraul Engn, Dalian 116024, Peoples R China
来源：
SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES | 2011年 / 54卷 / 07期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
flood forecast error; flood control forecast operation mode; dynamic control of flood limited water level; risk analysis; Dahuofang Reservoir; OPERATION;
D O I：
10.1007/s11431-011-4392-2
中图分类号：
T [工业技术];
学科分类号：
08 ;
摘要：
Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively increased by using flood forecast information and flood control forecast operation mode. In this paper, Dahuofang Reservoir is selected as a case study. At first, the distribution pattern and the bound of forecast error which is a key source of risk are analyzed. Then, based on the definition of flood risk, the risk of dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level within different flood forecast error bounds is studied. The results show that, the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level with flood forecast information can increase the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk effectively and it is feasible in practice.
引用
收藏
页码：1888 / 1893
页数：6
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