The fall and rise of bison populations in Wood Buffalo National Park: 1971 to 2003

Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain the decline of bison (Bison bison (L., 1758)) abundance in Wood Buffalo National Park (WBNP). The "disease-predation" hypothesis proposes that tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis (Karlson and Lessel 1970)) and brucellosis (Brucella abortus (Schmidt 1901)) reduce bison survival and reproduction. resulting in a low-density, predator-regulated equilibrium. The "habitat dispersion hypothesis" proposes that bison in one area of WBNP, the Peace-Athabasca Delta (Delta), have an increased risk of predation because they are concentrated in large meadows with high temporal and spatial predictability. We incorporate bison census data, calf and yearling segregation counts, reproductive rates, adult survival rates, and adult disease incidence in a stochastic population model to show that the historical decline of bison in WBNP would have occurred regardless of disease prevalence. Our model shows that survival of juveniles, the age class that is least Susceptible to disease effects, was likely an important determinant of historical changes in population size. We also demonstrate that the Population decline was most pronounced in the Delta and that juvenile survival was lower in the Delta, despite evidence that disease incidence was lower in the Delta than in the rest of WBNP. Lastly, the current population trend in WBNP is one of rapid increase, even in the presence of disease.