Impacts of an African Swine Fever Outbreak on Ontario's Pork Industry

African swine fever (ASF), a highly contagious disease affecting domestic and wild pigs, has been spreading globally, with devastating impacts on hog markets. The European Union saw pork exports decrease by euro556 million (9%) as a result of ASF outbreaks across four countries in 2014. Similarly, in 2018, when ASF was first reported in China, there was a 30% decrease in the Chinese pig inventory and in total pork production. ASF's eventual spread to North America seems inevitable. Given Canada's export-oriented pork industry, the economic costs and animal welfare impacts of an ASF outbreak in the Canadian hog sector could prove devastating as a result of potential border closures and large-scale animal depopulation. To estimate the impacts, we build a partial equilibrium, vertically integrated model of Ontario's pork industry from the breeding herd through to end consumer. If an outbreak occurred in a central production region of Ontario, we estimate that Ontario's pork industry would experience a welfare loss of C$860 million (28.1%). Conversely, if an outbreak occurred in Western Canada, the Ontario pork industry would benefit by C$198 million (6.5%). Not surprisingly, an outbreak will redistribute significant economic rents in the sector depending on where exactly the first outbreak occurs.