A new approach to cold surge classification in East Asia

被引：7
作者：
Kumar, Anupam [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] Nanyang Technol Univ, Interdisciplinary Grad Sch, Inst Catastrophe Risk Management, Singapore, Singapore
[2] Natl Environm Agcy, Ctr Climate Res Singapore, Meteorol Serv Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
来源：
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2021年 / 11卷 / 01期
关键词：
WINTER MONSOON; ARCTIC AMPLIFICATION; CLIMATE ASSESSMENT; IMPACT; TEMPERATURE;
D O I：
10.1038/s41598-021-02873-0
中图分类号：
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号：
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要：
Evidence showing a strengthening of intense cold surge event (CSE) in East Asia, e.g. CSE of Jan 2016 and Jan-Feb 2008, is focusing attention towards the science of CSE onset prediction. Predicting the onset of such strong CSEs remains elusive as the extent of these surges varies over spatial and temporal scales. Changes in radiative cooling over Siberia in winter as potentially affected by changes in the Arctic are further expected to influence CSE occurrences in East Asia. Moreover, unprecedented and long lasting CSEs in East Asia have a very distinct Jet Stream pattern via their shifts from the climatological mean, influencing the lower troposphere. Here, using modelling framework we propose a new relationship between Jet Stream and Aleutian Low for identifying and characterizing atmospheric process that leads to CSEs in East Asia. Our results reveal new insight into the mechanisms of CSEs occurrences, the absence of which may lead to major constraints on reducing CSE onset prediction error.
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页数：17
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