A Model Incorporating Serum Alkaline Phosphatase for Prediction of Liver Fibrosis in Adults with Obesity and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

We assessed the relationship between serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and liver fibrosis by histology, in addition to other noninvasive parameters, in obese patients undergoing metabolic surgery. Patients scheduled for elective bariatric surgery were prospectively recruited from a bariatric clinic. An intraoperative liver biopsy was performed, and liver histology was evaluated by a pathologist blinded to the patients' data. The endpoint was significant fibrosis defined as fibrosis stage >= 2. Independent predictors of fibrosis were identified by logistic regression. Two hundred ten patients were recruited. Liver histology revealed steatosis in 87.1%, steatohepatitis in 21.9%, and significant fibrosis in 10%. Independent predictors of significant fibrosis were ALP (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.03; 95% Confidence interval (CI), 1.01-1.05), alanine aminotransferase (OR 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), HbA1c (OR 1.58; 95% CI, 1.20-2.09), and body mass index (OR 1.06; 95% CI, 1.00-1.13). A tree-based model was developed to predict significant fibrosis, with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area of 0.845, sensitivity of 0.857, specificity of 0.836, and accuracy of 0.931. The applicability of serum ALP as an independent biomarker of liver fibrosis should be considered in obesity surgery patients, and in the broader context of obese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.