Analysis of Rear-End Crash on Thai Highway: Decision Tree Approach

Objective. Among crash types on Thai highways, rear-end crashes have been found to cause the largest number of fatalities. This study aims to find ways to decrease rear-end crashes and fatal rear-end crashes. Methods. Classification and regression tree (CART) was used to analyze the complicated relationship of variables of big data. The analysis was conducted by creating two models: (1) a model which indicates the causes of rear-end crashes by applying Quasi-Induced Exposure to at-fault driver characteristics; (2) a determined model which studies fatal crashes. Results. Predictor variables in the model of at-fault and not-at-fault drivers found that driver age is most significant, followed by number of lanes and median opening area. For the mode of fatality, the use of safety equipment was found to be of most importance. Conclusion. The model results can be used to develop guidelines for public awareness programs for motorists and to propose policy changes to the Department of Highway in order to reduce the severity of rear-end crashes. Moreover, this paper discusses the variables that may result in both the perspective of rear-end crash number and the fatality rate of rear-end crashes as strategies in future research.