China's import demand for agricultural products: The impact of the Phase One trade agreement

In December 2019, China committed to purchase more imports from the United States under a Phase One trade agreement. We show that the most efficient way for China to increase its agricultural imports from the United States is to mimic the effect of an import subsidy, which would need to be 42% and 59%, respectively, to meet the 2020 and 2021 targets in the absence of other growth from 2017. As a result, China would divert agricultural imports away from other countries, especially from Australia and Canada, followed by Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.