How well can prison staff predict recidivismof female prisoners? An application of Brunswik's lens model in a women's prison in Lower Saxony, Germany

Criminal risk assessment is an essential as well as challenging task within the prison system. This paper focuses on the correspondence between clinical judgements of recidivism by prison staff and actual recidivism rates of female prisoners after release from prison. Using Brunswik's lens model and social judgement theory predictions of recidivism for female prisoners by prison staff were compared with official criminal records after release. The data were based on information from prison staff on a total of 294 women who were detained in prison in Lower Saxony. Using linear and logistic regression models the subjectively estimated risk of recidivism of the women was compared to the actual recidivism based on extracts from the National central register using identical predictors. The results showed that there is a significant concordance between individual judgements and actual recidivism. Although some risk factors are predictive for both criteria, factors could be identified which are only associated with clinical judgement or criminal recidivism, respectively.