Effort and potential efficiencies for aquatic non-native species early detection

Our objective was to determine the effort required for high-probability early detection of non-native zooplankton, benthic invertebrates, and fish using Duluth-Superior Harbor - a Great Lakes port under intense non-native species introduction pressure - as a case study. Initially, we allocated samples using a spatially balanced random design. We then re-sampled the harbor, but allocated samples to a few targeted areas. We detected 21 non-native invertebrate and 10 non-native fish species; however, many rare zooplankton and benthic invertebrates were likely missed. The two designs did not have significantly different species accumulation curves, but the targeted area design samples had higher species richness and detected non-native species with a significantly higher probability. It was possible to reduce the effort required to detect established non-native species. In contrast, the effort required to detect an ultra-rare, newly arrived species remained large. Based on statistical estimation theory, the effort required to detect 95% or more of species present could exceed enumerating 750 zooplankton samples (similar to 500 000 individuals, similar to 90 species), 150 benthic invertebrate samples (similar to 100 000 individuals, similar to 250 species), and 100 fish samples (similar to 75 000 individuals, similar to 40 species).