On the Future of Passenger Mobility and its Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Cities: Scenarios for Different Types of Policies

Many cities have set goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Mobility is a major target sector as it is still widely fossil fuel-dependent and largely car-oriented. In this paper, a new methodological approach for modelling the impact of different policies on mobility, energy demand and resulting flow and embedded greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles is derived up to 2050. Finally, this approach is applied to the case of the City of Vienna. Three scenarios are developed with different policy targets focusing on battery electric vehicles and public transport. Each scenario was calculated with an average mix of electricity and a mix of renewable energy sources to be reached by 2030. The major conclusions are: (i) The impact of policies is of tremendous importance; (ii) Travel activity must be reduced; (iii) Public transport must be supported; (iv) The electricity mix has to be switched to renewable energy sources.