An evidential reasoning approach based on risk attitude and criterion reliability

被引：30

作者：

Fu, Chao ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Xue, Min ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Chang, Wenjun ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Xu, Dongling ^{[4
]}

Yang, Shanlin ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Hefei Univ Technol, Sch Management, Box 270, Hefei 230009, Anhui, Peoples R China

[2] Minist Educ, Key Lab Proc Optimizat & Intelligent Decis Making, Hefei 230009, Anhui, Peoples R China

[3] Minist Educ, Engn Res Ctr Intelligent Decis Making & Informat, Hefei 230009, Anhui, Peoples R China

[4] Univ Manchester, Decis & Cognit Sci Res Ctr, Alliance Manchester Business Sch, Manchester M13 9SS, Lancs, England

来源：

KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS | 2020年 / 199卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Evidential reasoning approach; Multiple criteria decision making; Risk attitude; Criterion reliability; Evidential reasoning rule; ATTRIBUTE DECISION-MAKING; VIKOR METHOD; UTILITY-THEORY; WEIGHTS; INFORMATION; SELECTION; ELECTRE; ALGORITHM; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.knosys.2020.105947

中图分类号：

TP18 [人工智能理论];

学科分类号：

081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;

摘要：

In the evidential reasoning (ER) approach, in addition to the weight of a criterion, reliability is another important concept in connection with the criterion although it attracts little attention. Additionally, a decision maker's risk attitude is of particular importance in decision-making. To simultaneously consider these two important factors, this paper proposes a new ER approach. In the approach, with the consideration of a decision maker's risk attitude, the combinational reliability of each criterion for each alternative is constructed from the original reliability of the criterion. By following the regression idea to learn the original reliability of each criterion, a unified optimization model is constructed, in which the maximum difference between combinational reliabilities and their estimations is minimized. Within the post-optimal solution space of criterion reliabilities found by solving the unified model, another optimization model is constructed, from which the minimum and maximum expected utilities of each alternative are determined. Solutions to multi-criteria decision-making problems are then generated from the expected utilities. The proposed approach is used to analyze a material supplier selection problem for a company located in Tongling, Anhui, China. The analysis of the problem demonstrates the applicability of the proposed approach. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页数：11