Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

被引：466

作者：

Shepherd, Andrew ^{[1
]}

Ivins, Erik ^{[2
]}

Rignot, Eric ^{[2
,3
]}

Smith, Ben ^{[4
]}

van den Broeke, Michiel ^{[5
]}

Velicogna, Isabella ^{[2
,3
]}

Whitehouse, Pippa ^{[6
]}

Briggs, Kate ^{[1
]}

Joughin, Ian ^{[4
]}

Krinner, Gerhard ^{[7
]}

Nowicki, Sophie ^{[8
]}

Payne, Tony ^{[9
]}

Scambos, Ted ^{[10
]}

Schlegel, Nicole ^{[2
]}

A, Geruo ^{[3
]}

Agosta, Cecile ^{[11
]}

Ahlstrom, Andreas ^{[12
]}

Babonis, Greg ^{[13
]}

Barletta, Valentina R. ^{[14
]}

Bjork, Anders A. ^{[15
]}

Blazquez, Alejandro ^{[16
]}

Bonin, Jennifer ^{[17
]}

Colgan, William ^{[12
]}

Csatho, Beata ^{[13
]}

Cullather, Richard ^{[18
]}

Engdahl, Marcus E. ^{[19
]}

Felikson, Denis ^{[8
]}

Fettweis, Xavier ^{[11
]}

Forsberg, Rene ^{[14
]}

Hogg, Anna E. ^{[1
]}

Gallee, Hubert ^{[7
]}

Gardner, Alex ^{[2
]}

Gilbert, Lin ^{[20
]}

Gourmelen, Noel ^{[21
]}

Groh, Andreas ^{[22
]}

Gunter, Brian ^{[23
]}

Hanna, Edward ^{[24
]}

Harig, Christopher ^{[25
]}

Helm, Veit ^{[26
]}

Horvath, Alexander ^{[27
]}

Horwath, Martin ^{[22
]}

Khan, Shfaqat ^{[14
]}

Kjeldsen, Kristian K. ^{[12
,28
]}

Konrad, Hannes ^{[29
]}

Langen, Peter L. ^{[30
]}

Lecavalier, Benoit ^{[31
]}

Loomis, Bryant ^{[8
]}

Luthcke, Scott ^{[8
]}

McMillan, Malcolm ^{[32
]}

Melini, Daniele ^{[33
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Leeds, Ctr Polar Observat & Modelling, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[2] CALTECH, NASA Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA

[3] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA

[4] Univ Washington, Dept Earth & Space Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[5] Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, Utrecht, Netherlands

[6] Univ Durham, Dept Geog, Durham, England

[7] Univ Grenoble Alpes, Inst Environm Geosci, Grenoble, France

[8] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Cryospher Sci Lab, Greenbelt, MD USA

[9] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England

[10] Univ Colorado, Earth Sci & Observat Ctr, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[11] Univ Liege, Dept Geog, Liege, Belgium

[12] Geol Survey Denmark & Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark

[13] SUNY Buffalo, Dept Geol, Buffalo, NY USA

[14] Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Space Inst, DTU Space, Lyngby, Denmark

[15] Univ Copenhagen, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, Copenhagen, Denmark

[16] Univ Toulouse, LEGOS, Toulouse, France

[17] Univ S Florida, Coll Marine Sci, Tampa, FL 33620 USA

[18] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD USA

[19] ESA ESRIN, Frascati, Italy

[20] Univ Coll London, Mullard Space Sci Lab, Holmbury, England

[21] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland

[22] Tech Univ Dresden, Inst Planetary Geodesy, Dresden, Germany

[23] Georgia Inst Technol, Daniel Guggenheim Sch Aerosp Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA

[24] Univ Lincoln, Sch Geog, Lincoln, England

[25] Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA

[26] Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Alfred Wegener Inst, Bremerhaven, Germany

[27] Tech Univ Munich, Inst Astron & Phys Geodesy, Munich, Germany

[28] Univ Copenhagen, Globe Inst, GeoGenet, Copenhagen, Denmark

[29] Deutsch Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

[30] Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark

[31] Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Phys & Phys Oceanog, St John, NF, Canada

[32] Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England

[33] Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Rome, Italy

[34] Nansen Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr, Bergen, Norway

[35] Western Norway Univ Appl Sci, Fac Engn & Sci, Sogndal, Norway

[36] Univ Magallanes, Direct Antarctic & Subantarctic Programs, Punta Arenas, Chile

[37] Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway

[38] Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England

[39] isardSAT, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain

[40] ENVEO, Innsbruck, Austria

[41] Univ Toronto, Dept Phys, Toronto, ON, Canada

[42] Univ Texas Austin, Ctr Space Res, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[43] Univ Bonn, Inst Geodesy & Geoinformat, Bonn, Germany

[44] Delft Univ Technol, Dept Space Engn, Delft, Netherlands

[45] Seoul Natl Univ, Dept Earth Sci Educ, Seoul, South Korea

[46] Univ Urbino Carlo Bo, Dipartimento Sci Pure & Applicate, Urbino, Italy

[47] Delft Univ Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Delft, Netherlands

[48] Univ Stuttgart, Geodet Inst, Stuttgart, Germany

[49] Univ Sheffield, Dept Comp Sci, Sheffield, S Yorkshire, England

[50] NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC USA

来源：

NATURE | 2020年 / 579卷 / 7798期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

GLACIAL ISOSTATIC-ADJUSTMENT; RELATIVE SEA-LEVEL; PETERMANN GLACIER; ELEVATION CHANGE; SURFACE; GRACE; CLIMATE; MODEL; ACCELERATION; ANTARCTICA;

D O I：

10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades(1,2), and it is expected to continue to be so(3). Although increases in glacier flow(4-6) and surface melting(7-9) have been driven by oceanic(10-12) and atmospheric(13,14) warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet's mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet's volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 +/- 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 +/- 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 +/- 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 +/- 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 +/- 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 +/- 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 +/- 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 +/- 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions(15) and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbr AE(16). Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario(17), which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.

引用

页码：233 / +

页数：21

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