In this research, we develop and test a model of the consumer's decision to immediately purchase a technologically advanced product or to delay such a purchase until a future generation of the product is released. We propose that for technologically advancing products, consumers consider both performance lag (how far behind am I now) and expected performance gain (how far ahead will I be if I wait to buy a future expected release) in their purchase decisions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that a firm's past product introductory strategy can significantly influence consumer perceptions of performance lag, performance gain, and the rate at which a product is advancing technologically We also propose that these perceptions of lag, gain and rate of technological change influence purchase action and ultimately determine whether or not a consumer will delay or immediately purchase a firm's current technological offering. We investigate the above relationships by introducing a model of consumer purchase behavior that incorporates the effects of a firm's frequency and pattern of next generation product introduction, and test the impact of different introductory strategies on performance lag, gain, rate of change perceptions, and purchase action. In our first study we test our model in a monopolistic setting and show that, holding all else fixed, infrequent product upgrades and/or increasing intergenerational release times result in consumers perceiving larger performance lags and gains. We also show that, holding all else fixed, consumers with larger performance lags and/or gains are less Likely to delay their purchases of the currently best available product. In our second study we test our model in a competitive setting and show that, holding all else fixed, a firm's past pattern of new product introduction can influence consumers' perceptions of the firm's product's rate of technological change. We also find that consumers are more likely to purchase products which they perceive to have higher rates of technological change. The key insight from this research is that firms have a strategic tool at their disposal that has been overlooked - the pattern of introduction of next generation products. Our findings suggest that a change in the frequency and/or pattern of introduction, in and of themselves, can influence consumers' perceptions of future product introductions, and ultimately influence their purchase actions. Specifically, we demonstrate that by better understanding consumers' purchase timing decisions, firms may be able to induce purchase on the basis of introductory frequency and pattern alone. Additionally, we demonstrate that by strategically managing consumer expectations of future product introductions, firms may be able to decrease the purchase likelihoods of competing products. Implications of our research and its application to the pattern and timing of preannouncements for new products are also explored. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
