CONTRASTING LUMPED AND DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGY MODELS FOR ESTIMATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CALIFORNIA WATERSHEDS

被引:44
作者
Maurer, Edwin P. [1 ]
Brekke, Levi D. [2 ]
Pruitt, Tom [2 ]
机构
[1] Santa Clara Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Santa Clara, CA 95053 USA
[2] Bur Reclamat, Tech Serv Ctr, Denver, CO USA
来源
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION | 2010年 / 46卷 / 05期
关键词
climate variability/change; recharge; runoff; surface water hydrology; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; UNITED-STATES; ART; FLUXES; UNCERTAINTY; MANAGEMENT; RESOURCES; SCENARIOS; FRAMEWORK;
D O I
10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00473.x
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
We compare the projected changes to streamflows for three Sierra Nevada rivers using statistically downscaled output from 22 global climate projections. The downscaled meteorological data are used to drive two hydrology models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model and the variable infiltration capacity model. These two models differ in their spatial resolution, computational time step, and degree and objective of calibration, thus producing significantly different simulations of current and future streamflow. However, the projected percentage changes in monthly streamflows through mid-21st Century generally did not differ, with the exceptions of streamflow during low flow months, and extreme low flows. These findings suggest that for physically based hydrology models applied to snow-dominated basins in Mediterranean climate regimes like the Sierra Nevada, California, model formulation, resolution, and calibration are secondary factors for estimating projected changes in extreme flows (seasonal or daily). For low flows, hydrology model selection and calibration can be significant factors in assessing impacts of projected climate change.
引用
收藏
页码:1024 / 1035
页数:12
相关论文
共 64 条
  • [1] Sustainable water resource management under hydrological uncertainty
    Ajami, Newsha K.
    Hornberger, George M.
    Sunding, David L.
    [J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2008, 44 (11)
  • [2] Anderson E., 1976, A Point Energy and Mass Balance Model of a Snow Cover
  • [3] ANDERSON EA, 2002, 45 NWS NOAA
  • [4] Progress on incorporating climate change into management of California's water resources
    Anderson, Jamie
    Chung, Francis
    Anderson, Michael
    Brekke, Levi
    Easton, Daniel
    Ejeta, Messele
    Peterson, Roy
    Snyder, Richard
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2008, 87 (Suppl 1) : S91 - S108
  • [5] [Anonymous], 2007, Eos Transactions, American Geophysical Union, DOI DOI 10.1029/2007EO470006
  • [6] Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States
    Barnett, Tim P.
    Pierce, David W.
    Hidalgo, Hugo G.
    Bonfils, Celine
    Santer, Benjamin D.
    Das, Tapash
    Bala, Govindasamy
    Wood, Andrew W.
    Nozawa, Toru
    Mirin, Arthur A.
    Cayan, Daniel R.
    Dettinger, Michael D.
    [J]. SCIENCE, 2008, 319 (5866) : 1080 - 1083
  • [7] Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions
    Barnett, TP
    Adam, JC
    Lettenmaier, DP
    [J]. NATURE, 2005, 438 (7066) : 303 - 309
  • [8] A comparison between two empirical downscaling strategies
    Benestad, RE
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2001, 21 (13) : 1645 - 1668
  • [9] Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments
    Brekke, Levi D.
    Dettinger, Michael D.
    Maurer, Edwin P.
    Anderson, Michael
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2008, 89 (3-4) : 371 - 394
  • [10] Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change
    Brekke, Levi D.
    Maurer, Edwin P.
    Anderson, Jamie D.
    Dettinger, Michael D.
    Townsley, Edwin S.
    Harrison, Alan
    Pruitt, Tom
    [J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2009, 45