Objective To give a comprehensive description of GM (1; 1) modeling for prediction of cerebral infraction, and predict the changing trend of the incidence of cerebral infarction. Methods An example of predicting the rate of cerebral infraction is employed to describe the technique. Using the grey series GM (1, 1) forecast model Y (t)=[x(1) - u/a]e(-a(t-1)) + u/a, we predict the trend of the month incidence of cerebral infarction from January, 2007 to December 2010. Results Based on the incidence of cerebral infarction from January, 2001 to December, 2006, we made the grey systemic forecast model. (Y) over cap (t) = 8.8876e(0.0276(t-1)) + 8.8876. The fitting results show that the precision is eligible (C = 0.418778, P = 0.815383). The incidence of cerebral infraction in Haixizhou region tends to increase month by month. Conclusion GM (I, 1) model can be well used to the short-term prediction of cerebral infraction, the results show that the incidence of cerebral infarction of latest seven years is upwards continuously, related departments should enhance the prevention work.
