The Determinants of International Football Success: A Panel Data Analysis of the Elo Rating

Objectives. This article investigates the determinants of football(1) success at the international level. We introduce three innovations as (a) we apply the model developed by Bernard and Busse (2004) to football, (b) we consider a wide panel of countries over a 33-year period, and (c) we supplement FIFA's classification with the Elo rating system. Methods. We estimate a dynamic panel model using Blundell and Bond's (1998) system-generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. Results. The results are robust to several sensitivity analyses, showing that economics, demographics, weather, geography, and football institutions are good indicators of football success at the international level. Besides, the Elo rating is a better alternative indicator than the FIFA ranking. Conclusions. The Elo rating may be used in the academic works that wish to analyze football success over a long period of time.