CLIMATE CHANGE-INDUCED RANGE SHIFTS IN CHINESE ASH (FRAXINUS CHINENSIS) ALONG THREE GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSIONS IN CHINA AT THE LATE 21ST CENTURY br

In the present study, we establish a set of indicator systems to characterize the shifts in total range and core range of Chinese ash (Fraxinus chinensis) at three geographical dimensions under climate change scenarios in China by the year of 2070. The results show that current core range and total range areas were 1.3 x 106 km2 and 3.3 x 106 km2, accounting for 13.5% and 34.4% of the land area in China. The size of core range and total range areas will increase in varying degrees, depending on the CO2 emission concentration path. The average of future core range and total range areas were 1.95 x 106 km2 and 3.7 x 106 km2 across climate change scenarios, accounting for 20.3% and 38.5% of the land area in China. But, there was a difference in the centroid shift velocity and direction between the core and total ranges at the horizontal gradient. The average shift speed of total range is 11.39 km/decade toward northwest and that for core range is 9.32 km/decade toward northeast across climate scenarios. The average shift speed of the core range -9.05 m/decade downward and that for total range is 17.15 m/decade upward across climate change scenarios. This study indicates that the response of total range and core distribution range to climate change is not synchronous. Considering poleward or northward shift will underestimate about 2.2-20.1% for total range and 21.2-56.3% for core range. Thus, the study have important guiding significance for determining the potential shift route and adjust the shift speed for planting the tree species in response to future climate change. The indicator systems used here have a wide range of practicability and can applied to any species, region, or time.