A real option theoretic fuzzy evaluation model for enterprise resource planning investment

被引：25

作者：

You, Chew Jian ^{[1
]}

Lee, C. K. M. ^{[1
]}

Chen, S. L. ^{[1
]}

Jiao, Roger J. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Nanyang Technol Univ, Sch Mech & Aerosp Engn, Div Syst & Engn Management, Singapore 639798, Singapore

[2] Georgia Inst Technol, George W Woodruff Sch Mech Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT | 2012年 / 29卷 / 01期

关键词：

Real Option Theory; Enterprise resource planning; Fuzzy payoff valuation; Fuzzy Logic; Option valuation models; CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS; IMPLEMENTATION; SYSTEM; JUSTIFICATION; DECISION; ADOPTION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jengtecman.2011.09.005

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

The high failure rate of ERP implementation is due to a common pitfall that ERP projects are often enacted as merely investment into installation of IT infrastructure, rather than systematic planning of operation changes, business process re-engineering and a paradigm shift for the operation and management. To manage ERP investment in a changing environment for high payoff, this paper adopts a real option theoretic method. Fuzzy payoff valuation is introduced to deal with uncertainties in order to minimize the risk of failure. The proposed ERP evaluation model is geared towards small and medium enterprises. A case study is presented to validate the proposed fuzzy real options. The results indicate the potential of modeling ERP investment as "Expand", "Contain" and "Abandon" options in different scenarios. The fuzzy real option model bestows a novel ex-ante cost analysis for justifying ERP investment in the implementation cycle. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：47 / 61

页数：15

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