Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

被引:3
作者
Gonzalez-Orozco, Carlos E. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Pollock, Laura J. [4 ,5 ,6 ]
Thornhill, Andrew H. [7 ,8 ,9 ,10 ]
Mishler, Brent D. [7 ,8 ]
Knerr, Nunzio [9 ]
Laffan, ShawnW. [11 ]
Miller, Joseph T. [9 ,12 ]
Rosauer, Dan F. [13 ]
Faith, Daniel P. [14 ]
Nipperess, David A. [15 ]
Kujala, Heini [6 ]
Linke, Simon [16 ]
Butt, Nathalie [17 ,18 ]
Kulheim, Carsten [13 ]
Crisp, Michael D. [13 ]
Gruber, Bernd [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Canberra, Inst Appl Ecol, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
[2] Univ Canberra, Collaborat Res Network Murray Darling Basin Futur, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
[3] Corp Colombiana Invest Agr, Corp, Km 17 Via Puerto Lopez, Meta 500001, Colombia
[4] Univ Grenoble Alpes, Lab Ecol Alpine LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France
[5] CNRS, Lab Ecol Alpine LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France
[6] Univ Melbourne, Natl Environm Res Program, Sch Biosci, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia
[7] Univ Calif Berkeley, Univ & Jepson Herbaria, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
[8] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Integrat Biol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
[9] CSIRO Natl Facil & Collect, Natl Res Collect Australia, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
[10] James Cook Univ, Australian Trop Herbarium, Cairns, Qld 4870, Australia
[11] Univ New South Wales, Ctr Ecosyst Sci, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
[12] Natl Sci Fdn, Div Environm Biol, Arlington, VA 22230 USA
[13] Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Biol, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia
[14] Australian Museum, Res Inst, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia
[15] Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia
[16] Griffith Univ, Australian Rivers Inst, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia
[17] Univ Queensland, ARC Ctr Excellence Environm Decis, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia
[18] Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia
关键词
EUCALYPTS; CONSEQUENCES; DIVERSITY; PATTERNS; ENDEMISM; DRIVEN; TREE;
D O I
10.1038/NCLIMATE3126
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts(1-3). Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species(4), but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades(1) and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity(5). Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism(6) (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.
引用
收藏
页码:1110 / +
页数:6
相关论文
共 41 条
  • [1] Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe
    Araujo, M. B.
    Thuiller, W.
    Pearson, R. G.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, 2006, 33 (10) : 1712 - 1728
  • [2] Chloroplast genome analysis of Australian eucalypts - Eucalyptus, Corymbia, Angophora, Allosyficarpia and Stockwellia (Myrtaceae)
    Bayly, Michael J.
    Rigault, Philippe
    Spokevicius, Antanas
    Ladiges, Pauline Y.
    Ades, Peter K.
    Anderson, Charlotte
    Bossinger, Gerd
    Merchant, Andrew
    Udovicic, Frank
    Woodrow, Ian E.
    Tibbits, Josquin
    [J]. MOLECULAR PHYLOGENETICS AND EVOLUTION, 2013, 69 (03) : 704 - 716
  • [3] Native forests and climate change: Lessons from eucalypts
    Booth, T. H.
    Broadhurst, L. M.
    Pinkard, E.
    Prober, S. M.
    Dillon, S. K.
    Bush, D.
    Pinyopusarerk, K.
    Doran, J. C.
    Ivkovich, M.
    Young, A. G.
    [J]. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2015, 347 : 18 - 29
  • [4] Eucalypts face increasing climate stress
    Butt, Nathalie
    Pollock, Laura J.
    McAlpine, Clive A.
    [J]. ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION, 2013, 3 (15): : 5011 - 5022
  • [5] Phylogenetic diversity metrics for ecological communities: integrating species richness, abundance and evolutionary history
    Cadotte, Marc W.
    Davies, T. Jonathan
    Regetz, James
    Kembel, Steven W.
    Cleland, Elsa
    Oakley, Todd H.
    [J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2010, 13 (01) : 96 - 105
  • [6] Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity
    Cardinale, Bradley J.
    Duffy, J. Emmett
    Gonzalez, Andrew
    Hooper, David U.
    Perrings, Charles
    Venail, Patrick
    Narwani, Anita
    Mace, Georgina M.
    Tilman, David
    Wardle, David A.
    Kinzig, Ann P.
    Daily, Gretchen C.
    Loreau, Michel
    Grace, James B.
    Larigauderie, Anne
    Srivastava, Diane S.
    Naeem, Shahid
    [J]. NATURE, 2012, 486 (7401) : 59 - 67
  • [7] CREMER KW, 1977, AUST FOREST RES, V7, P225
  • [8] Flammable biomes dominated by eucalypts originated at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary
    Crisp, Michael D.
    Burrows, Geoffrey E.
    Cook, Lyn G.
    Thornhill, Andrew H.
    Bowman, David M. J. S.
    [J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2011, 2
  • [9] MUSCLE: multiple sequence alignment with high accuracy and high throughput
    Edgar, RC
    [J]. NUCLEIC ACIDS RESEARCH, 2004, 32 (05) : 1792 - 1797
  • [10] Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras
    Eiserhardt, Wolf L.
    Borchsenius, Finn
    Plum, Christoffer M.
    Ordonez, Alejandro
    Svenning, Jens-Christian
    [J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2015, 18 (03) : 263 - 272