Projection of CO2 emissions in Indonesia

The impact of global warming caused by the increasing CO2 concentrations has emerged as one of the most critical issues to be globally addressed. The top two sectors contributing to the country's emissions are forestry and energy, emissions from deforestation, and power generation. Most of the fuel used in petroleum and coal are identified as contributors to Indonesia's CO2 emissions. This study employs a comprehensive modelling tool, the GAINS energy planning system, to project CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2050 for each sector. Furthermore, it is compared with projections from Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT, Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi) of Indonesia and the Secretariat General of the National Energy Council (SGNEC) to find out which energy sector is the largest contributor to CO2 emissions. Then a projection was made using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for CO2 data at the GAW station, West Sumatra. Actual and projected data show that the CO2 concentrations were above 400 ppm, which had the potential to cause global warming. The government is recommended to use this projection as an effort to reduce global warming. The Indonesian government, with The Paris Agreement, is willing to reduce CO2 emissions by 41% by 2030. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.