Growth and real business cycles in Vietnam and the Asean-5. Does the trend shock matter?

被引:9
作者
Binh Thai Pham [1 ]
Sala, Hector [1 ]
Silva, Jose, I [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Appl Econ, Barcelona, Spain
[2] Univ Girona, Dept Econ, Girona, Spain
关键词
Vietnam; ASEAN; DSGE; Real business cycles; Trend shock; Growth; HABIT FORMATION; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; CONSUMPTION; MODEL;
D O I
10.1016/j.ecosys.2019.100730
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We examine Vietnam's economy in comparison with its closest trade partners. We show that capital accumulation has been the primary growth engine since the start of its transition to the pro-market economy in 1986 - the Doi Moi. We also show that the cyclical behavior of its macro aggregates is similar to that of its ASEAN-5 peers and other developing countries. We extend the standard small open economy RBC model by considering habit persistence and government consumption, which allows a close match of the moments of the growth variables. At the business cycle frequency, transitory productivity shocks account for approximately one-half of Vietnam's output variance, while country risk and non-transitory productivity shocks account to close to one-fifth each. Regarding the Solow residual's volatility, we find that the trend component merely accounts for 12 % of this variance in Vietnam, while in Thailand it is only 6 %. These findings refute the "the cycle is the trend" hypothesis in Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) and align with the hypotheses in Garcia-Cicco et al. (2010) and Rhee (2017), where the stationary component is overwhelmingly dominant. We claim that technological progress and productivity-enhancing measures are fundamental for Vietnam's economy to sustain high growth.
引用
收藏
页数:21
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