Exploring the impact of tourism and energy consumption on the load capacity factor in Turkey: a novel dynamic ARDL approach

In the last two decades, the tourism and energy sectors have grown rapidly and boosted economic growth, but it is inevitable that these sectors will cause environmental changes. So far, attempts have been made to determine the impact of the tourism and energy sectors on environmental degradation by examining pollution indicators such as CO2 emissions and ecological footprint. However, these indicators neglect the supply side of the environment. In this context, this paper, for the first time, examines the influence of tourism, income, and energy consumption on the load capacity factor that results from dividing biocapacity by ecological footprint. Thus, the study aims to conduct a comprehensive sustainability analysis for Turkey by assessing the environmental quality on the supply and demand side. For this purpose, the study employs the novel dynamic Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) simulations for the period 1965-2017, and the results indicate that tourist arrivals, energy consumption, and economic growth have a negative long run effect on the load capacity factor. Among these factors, only economic growth exerts a significant impact on the load capacity factor in both the short and long run. In the long run, the negative environmental effect of economic growth is less than in the short run. Therefore, the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid for Turkey. Based on the results, some policy recommendations are proposed to help Turkey improve its environmental quality.