A game theory model on the financial crisis with an unique Bayesian nash equilibrium

In this paper, an incomplete information game theory model is proposed, of which the Nash equilibrium predicts the usual behaviors of investors. By adding a small white noise to the complete information game theory model, we remove the multiple Nash equilibrium in the original model. Meanwhile, this model can estimate the probability of financial crisis. An important result of this paper is that usually a financial crisis will happen when macro-economy parameters becomes undesirable, and after that, the self-fulfilling effect will sparks a financial crisis. Furthermore, this model can be used in general situations to eliminate multiple Nash equilibrium in game theory models, and can be used in researches about the fluctuating of financial market, including financial assets pricing.