Analytical failure probability model for generic gravity dam classes

Risk analysis of concrete dams and quantification of the failure probability are important tasks in dam safety assessment. The conditional probability of demand and capacity is usually estimated by numerical simulation and Monte Carlo technique. However, the estimated failure probability (or the reliability index) is dam-dependent which makes its application limited to some case studies. This article proposes an analytical failure model for generic gravity dam classes which is optimized based on large number of nonlinear finite element analyses. A hybrid parametric-probabilistic-statistical approach is used to estimate the failure probability as a function of dam size, material distributional models and external hydrological hazard. The proposed model can be used for preliminary design and evaluation of two-dimensional gravity dam models.