Forecast and identifying factors on a double dip fertility rate for Korea

Since 2000, Korea's total fertility rate (TFR) has been different from that of Japan, Germany, and France where irreversible constants do not change easily in the fertility rate increasing or decreasing phase. It also showed a gradual increase from the minimum fertility level 1.08 in 2005 to 1.23 in 2015, which dropped to 1.17 in 2016, to 1.05 in 2017 and to 0.98 in 2018. This is similar to a double dip in the economic status of a recession. This paper investigates such a TFR increase and decrease factor that predicts the number of births affecting TFR, examines trends in the proportion of married and marital fertility rate broken down by TFR decomposition method. We also examined how these changes affect the change in TFR. According to the results, the number of births is estimated to be between 320 and 330 thousand in 2018, 300 thousand in 2020, 230 and 240 thousand in 2025. The proportion of married is steadily decreasing from 1981 to 2025, and the marital fertility rate is predicted to decline until 2002, then increase from 2003 to 2016 and decrease from 2017 to 2025. Finally, the trend of TFR in terms of number of births, TFR decomposition and statistical model is expected to show 0.98 in 2018, 0.93 to 1.11 in 2020 and 0.76 to 1.08 in 2025.