Spatiotemporal Invasion Severity of Chinese Tallow (Triadica sebifera) and Invasibility of Forest Types in Southern US Forestlands

Quantifying invasion severity of nonnative invasive plant species is vital for the development of appropriate mitigation and control measures. We examined more than 23,250 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots from the southern coastal states of the United States to develop an alternative method to classify and map the invasion severity of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera). Remeasured FIA plot-level data were used to examine the spatiotemporal changes in the presence probability and cover percentage of tallow. Four invasion severity classes were identified by using the product of presence probability and cover percentage. Chinese tallow invasion severity increased over time with 90 and 123 counties being classified into the highest severity class for the first and second measurement, respectively. Further, the invasibility of major forest-type groups by severity class was examined using the product of the county-level mean presence probability and mean cover percentage of Chinese tallow as a proxy of invasibility. Longleaf/slash pine (Pinus palustris/P. elliottii) forests were highly resilient to the Chinese tallow invasion. In contrast, elm/ash/cottonwood (Ulmus spp./Fraxinus spp./Populus deltoides) and oak/gum/cypress (Quercus spp./Nyssa spp./Taxodium spp.) forest-type groups were vulnerable to invasion. Study Implications: In the southern United States forestland, differences in invasion severity and vulnerability of forest types to Chinese tallow invasion have been observed across time and space. Our findings provide insight into spatial variations in the severity of Chinese tallow invasion and the relative susceptibility of different forest-type groups in the region to inform monitoring and management of this invasive species. High invasion severity occurs in the lower Gulf of Mexico coastal region of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi and the Atlantic coastal region of South Carolina and Georgia, with the longleaf/slash pine and oak/gum/cypress forest-type groups being most susceptible to Chinese tallow invasion. Based on these results, we recommend that management efforts be tailored to the different invasion severity classes. Forests in the highseverity class need a management program coordinated across different agencies and landowners to curb the increase of tallow populations to prevent stand replacing risks. The monitoring of Chinese tallow spread should focus on longleaf/slash pine, loblolly/shortleaf pine, and oak/gum/ cypress groups, because the spread rate was higher in these forest-type groups. A better use of scarce resources could be to treat lands in the moderate- and low-severity classes to reduce the propagule pressure levels and post-invasion spread. For those counties with a minimal-severity condition, early detection and eradiction measures should be taken in a timely maner to prevent tallow from invading noninvaded neighboring counties. Managers may be able to treat a larger area of these lands for a given investment compared with lands already severely invaded.