The Persistence of Weapons: Global Evidence

This article investigates persistence (or hysteresis) in weapons using a panel of 163 countries for the period 2010-15. The following are some main findings: (1) compared to countries that are landlocked, persistence in heavy weapons is more apparent in nations that are open to the sea; (2) relative to the Middle East and North Africa, heavy weapons are more persistent in the East Asia and the Pacific countries. This tendency is consistent with "weapons imports;" (3) evidence of persistence is not very apparent in "weapons imports" with the exception of the fact that it is higher in low-income countries, compared to their high-income counterparts. Hence, there is less hysteresis in weapons exports when compared with heavy weapons exports; and (4) the determinants of persistence employed in the conditioning information set are contingent on fundamental characteristics and panels. Policy implications are discussed.