Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

被引：17
作者：
Bai, Zhenguo [1 ]
Liu, Dan [1 ]
机构：
[1] Xidian Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Xian 710071, Peoples R China
来源：
COMMUNICATIONS IN NONLINEAR SCIENCE AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION | 2015年 / 25卷 / 1-3期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
Measles; Basic reproduction number; Periodic solution; Uniform persistence; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES; EPIDEMIC THRESHOLD;
D O I：
10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.09.030
中图分类号：
O29 [应用数学];
学科分类号：
070104 ;
摘要：
A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R-0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R-0 < 1, and the disease will persist in the population if R-0 > 1. Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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页码：19 / 26
页数：8
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