Analysis and testing of electric car incentive scenarios in the Netherlands and Norway

被引：30
|
作者：
Deuten, Sebastiaan [1 ,2 ]
Vilchez, Jonatan J. Gomez [1 ]
Thiel, Christian [1 ]
机构：
[1] European Commiss, JRC, Ispra, Italy
[2] Netherlands Org Appl Sci Res, TNO, Anna van Buerenpl 1, NL-2595 DA The Hague, Netherlands
来源：
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2020年 / 151卷 / 151期
关键词：
Electric vehicle; Automotive; System dynamics; Netherlands; Norway; Policy scenarios; ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLE; MODEL; SYSTEM; POLICY; FUTURE; PREFERENCES; VALIDATION; CHOICE; IMPACT; COST;
D O I：
10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119847
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
Past and future electric vehicle sales shares in the Netherlands and Norway are analysed with the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model. This system dynamics model was expanded to include the leading Norwegian car market and updated with recent data on policy incentives. Three model validation tests are discussed: the reproduction of past behaviour from 2010 till 2017, policy sensitivity, and feedback loop knockout analysis. Findings point in the direction that regulation on emission targets for manufacturers are necessary for a transition away from new sales of fossil fuel-based vehicles. Only strong incentives resulted in large sales shares of zero emission vehicles in the Netherlands and Norway.
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页数：17
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