Revisiting the PERT mean and variance

被引：21

作者：

Manuel Herrerias-Velasco, Jose ^{[2
]}

Herrerias-Pleguezuelo, Rafael ^{[2
]}

Rene van Dorp, Johan ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] George Washington Univ, Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Engn Management & Syst Engn Dept, Washington, DC 20052 USA

[2] Univ Granada, Fac Ciencias Econ & Empresariales, Dept Metodos Cuantitat Econ & Empresa, E-18071 Granada, Spain

来源：

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH | 2011年 / 210卷 / 02期

关键词：

Project scheduling; PERT; Beta distribution; Expert judgment; TIMES;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ejor.2010.08.014

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

Difficulties with the interpretation of the parameters of the beta distribution let Malcolm et al. (1959) to suggest in the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) their by now classical expressions for the mean and variance for activity completion for practical applications. In this note, we shall provide an alternative for the PERT variance expression addressing a concern raised by Hahn (2008) regarding the constant PERT variance assumption given the range for an activity's duration, while retaining the original PERT mean expression. Moreover, our approach ensures that an activity's elicited most likely value aligns with the beta distribution's mode. While this was the original intent of Malcolm et al. (1959), their method of selecting beta parameters via the PERT mean and variance is not consistent in this manner. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：448 / 451

页数：4

共 12 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2004, OPERATIONS RES APPL

[2] PERT ASSUMPTIONS REVISITED [J].