Development and Validation of an Ultrasonic Diagnostic Model for Differentiating Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma from Follicular Adenoma

Background: High-resolution ultrasound is the first choice for the diagnosis of thyroid nodules, but it is still difficult to distinguish between follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) and follicular adenoma (FA). Our research aimed to develop and validate an ultrasonic diagnostic model for differentiating FTC from FA. Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed 196 patients who were diagnosed as FTC (n=83) and FA (n=113). LASSO regression analysis was used to screen clinical and ultrasonic features. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to establish the ultrasonic diagnostic model of FTC. Nomogram was used for the visualization of diagnostic models. C-index, ROC, and calibration curves analysis were used to evaluate the accuracy of the diagnostic model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the net benefits of the ultrasonic diagnostic model for FTC diagnosis under different threshold probabilities. The bootstrap method was used to verify the ultrasonic diagnostic model. Results: After Lasso regression analysis, 10 clinical and ultrasonic features were used to construct the ultrasonic diagnostic model of FTC. The C-index and AUC of the model were 0.868 and 0.860, respectively. DCA showed that the ultrasonic model had good clinical application value. The C-index in the validation group was 0.818, which was close to the C-index in the model. Conclusion: Ultrasonic diagnostic model constructed with 10 clinical and ultrasonic features can better distinguish FTC from FA.