Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US

被引:8
作者
Albonico, Alice [1 ,3 ]
Paccagnini, Alessia [2 ]
Tirelli, Patrizio [3 ]
机构
[1] JRC, European Commiss, Ispra, VA, Italy
[2] Univ Coll Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
[3] Univ Milano Bicocca, Bicocca, Italy
关键词
DSGE; Limited asset market participation; Bayesian estimation; US economy; Business cycle; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; BUSINESS CYCLES; DSGE-MODELS; CONSUMPTION; FRICTIONS; STIMULUS; RIGIDITIES; SHOCKS;
D O I
10.1016/j.jedc.2016.10.012
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate policy. In contrast with previous findings, the subsequent jobless recovery is explained by the ZLB effect. We estimate a fraction of Non-Ricardian households which is close to 50%, and obtain comparatively large fiscal multipliers. However we cannot detect a significant contribution of fiscal policies in stabilizing the US economy. For instance, the 2007-2009 large increase in expenditure-to-GDP ratios was apparently determined by the adverse non-policy shocks that caused the recession. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:140 / 161
页数:22
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